Contemporary climate variability and forest fires in Deliblatska pescara

Abstract

Considering the actual scenario of contemporary global climate changes and their possible influence on forest fires, the connections between temperature changes and precipitations on fires have been examined in Deliblatska pescara. The basic characteristics of fires have been analyzed in the area which is considered the most endangered in Serbia. The decreasing trend of annual number of fires was ascertained for period the 1948-2002. However, the trend of annual temperature and precipitation changes is not in accordance with the trend of annual number of fires. Some seasonal aspects related with the change of climate elements cannot also explain the decreasing number of fires. A rising trend of annual fire spread surface have been ascertained, which is in accordance with air temperature rise at the end of the 20th century. However, five extreme values were far above the upper standard deviation, which was explained by non climate factors (increase of surface under pine trees, mistakes during fire extinguishing and similar).