Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness

2018
Authors
Anđelković, Goran
Jovanović, Slavoljub

Manojlović, Sanja

Samardžić, Ivan

Živković, Ljiljana

Šabić, Dejan

Gatarić, Dragica

Džinović, Milanka
Article (Published version)

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Show full item recordAbstract
Considering recent weather events in Serbia (especially the floods in 2014), a need has arisen for research that would help in identifying extreme weather phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the thresholds above which intense precipitation can be considered as extreme precipitation events in Serbia. In this study, we determined the frequency of precipitation occurring at an intensity above the threshold of an extreme phenomenon (1961-2015), as well as the frequency of precipitation occurring at or above the absolute daily maximum in the reference period (1961-1990). The study sample included daily rainfall observations from 28 stations from the national meteorological network in Serbia. Applying a decile method, all the stations recording precipitation above the threshold of dangerous phenomena on the same day are classified into the corresponding decile. The threshold value was determined as the average value of the extreme annual precipitation in the analyzed ...period. The cases that are due to the high prevalence listed in the last decile are considered extreme. The results showed that the critical number of observation points above which an event is considered extreme precipitation event is 6.21, and a warning of the danger could be ensured only in the case of neighboring stations in the network. The threshold of extreme precipitation events for the individual stations ranges up to 130 mm. The obtained results might be used to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation events in Serbia in the future.
Keywords:
extreme precipitation / threshold / SerbiaSource:
Atmosphere, 2018, 9, 5Publisher:
- MDPI, Basel
Funding / projects:
- Development programs of villages’ revitalization in Serbia (RS-176008)
- Development problems and trends of geospatial systems of Republic of Serbia (RS-176017)
- Studying climate change and its influence on environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation (RS-43007)
DOI: 10.3390/atmos9050188
ISSN: 2073-4433
WoS: 000435190300031
Scopus: 2-s2.0-85047157168
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Institution/Community
Geografski fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Anđelković, Goran AU - Jovanović, Slavoljub AU - Manojlović, Sanja AU - Samardžić, Ivan AU - Živković, Ljiljana AU - Šabić, Dejan AU - Gatarić, Dragica AU - Džinović, Milanka PY - 2018 UR - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/944 AB - Considering recent weather events in Serbia (especially the floods in 2014), a need has arisen for research that would help in identifying extreme weather phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the thresholds above which intense precipitation can be considered as extreme precipitation events in Serbia. In this study, we determined the frequency of precipitation occurring at an intensity above the threshold of an extreme phenomenon (1961-2015), as well as the frequency of precipitation occurring at or above the absolute daily maximum in the reference period (1961-1990). The study sample included daily rainfall observations from 28 stations from the national meteorological network in Serbia. Applying a decile method, all the stations recording precipitation above the threshold of dangerous phenomena on the same day are classified into the corresponding decile. The threshold value was determined as the average value of the extreme annual precipitation in the analyzed period. The cases that are due to the high prevalence listed in the last decile are considered extreme. The results showed that the critical number of observation points above which an event is considered extreme precipitation event is 6.21, and a warning of the danger could be ensured only in the case of neighboring stations in the network. The threshold of extreme precipitation events for the individual stations ranges up to 130 mm. The obtained results might be used to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation events in Serbia in the future. PB - MDPI, Basel T2 - Atmosphere T1 - Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness VL - 9 IS - 5 DO - 10.3390/atmos9050188 UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_944 ER -
@article{ author = "Anđelković, Goran and Jovanović, Slavoljub and Manojlović, Sanja and Samardžić, Ivan and Živković, Ljiljana and Šabić, Dejan and Gatarić, Dragica and Džinović, Milanka", year = "2018", abstract = "Considering recent weather events in Serbia (especially the floods in 2014), a need has arisen for research that would help in identifying extreme weather phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the thresholds above which intense precipitation can be considered as extreme precipitation events in Serbia. In this study, we determined the frequency of precipitation occurring at an intensity above the threshold of an extreme phenomenon (1961-2015), as well as the frequency of precipitation occurring at or above the absolute daily maximum in the reference period (1961-1990). The study sample included daily rainfall observations from 28 stations from the national meteorological network in Serbia. Applying a decile method, all the stations recording precipitation above the threshold of dangerous phenomena on the same day are classified into the corresponding decile. The threshold value was determined as the average value of the extreme annual precipitation in the analyzed period. The cases that are due to the high prevalence listed in the last decile are considered extreme. The results showed that the critical number of observation points above which an event is considered extreme precipitation event is 6.21, and a warning of the danger could be ensured only in the case of neighboring stations in the network. The threshold of extreme precipitation events for the individual stations ranges up to 130 mm. The obtained results might be used to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation events in Serbia in the future.", publisher = "MDPI, Basel", journal = "Atmosphere", title = "Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness", volume = "9", number = "5", doi = "10.3390/atmos9050188", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_944" }
Anđelković, G., Jovanović, S., Manojlović, S., Samardžić, I., Živković, L., Šabić, D., Gatarić, D.,& Džinović, M.. (2018). Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness. in Atmosphere MDPI, Basel., 9(5). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9050188 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_944
Anđelković G, Jovanović S, Manojlović S, Samardžić I, Živković L, Šabić D, Gatarić D, Džinović M. Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness. in Atmosphere. 2018;9(5). doi:10.3390/atmos9050188 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_944 .
Anđelković, Goran, Jovanović, Slavoljub, Manojlović, Sanja, Samardžić, Ivan, Živković, Ljiljana, Šabić, Dejan, Gatarić, Dragica, Džinović, Milanka, "Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness" in Atmosphere, 9, no. 5 (2018), https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9050188 ., https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_944 .