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Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness

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2018
942.pdf (1.875Mb)
Authors
Anđelković, Goran
Jovanović, Slavoljub
Manojlović, Sanja
Samardžić, Ivan
Živković, Ljiljana
Šabić, Dejan
Gatarić, Dragica
Džinović, Milanka
Article (Published version)
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Abstract
Considering recent weather events in Serbia (especially the floods in 2014), a need has arisen for research that would help in identifying extreme weather phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the thresholds above which intense precipitation can be considered as extreme precipitation events in Serbia. In this study, we determined the frequency of precipitation occurring at an intensity above the threshold of an extreme phenomenon (1961-2015), as well as the frequency of precipitation occurring at or above the absolute daily maximum in the reference period (1961-1990). The study sample included daily rainfall observations from 28 stations from the national meteorological network in Serbia. Applying a decile method, all the stations recording precipitation above the threshold of dangerous phenomena on the same day are classified into the corresponding decile. The threshold value was determined as the average value of the extreme annual precipitation in the analyzed ...period. The cases that are due to the high prevalence listed in the last decile are considered extreme. The results showed that the critical number of observation points above which an event is considered extreme precipitation event is 6.21, and a warning of the danger could be ensured only in the case of neighboring stations in the network. The threshold of extreme precipitation events for the individual stations ranges up to 130 mm. The obtained results might be used to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation events in Serbia in the future.

Keywords:
extreme precipitation / threshold / Serbia
Source:
Atmosphere, 2018, 9, 5
Publisher:
  • MDPI, Basel
Funding / projects:
  • Development programs of villages’ revitalization in Serbia (RS-176008)
  • Development problems and trends of geospatial systems of Republic of Serbia (RS-176017)
  • Studying climate change and its influence on environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation (RS-43007)

DOI: 10.3390/atmos9050188

ISSN: 2073-4433

WoS: 000435190300031

Scopus: 2-s2.0-85047157168
[ Google Scholar ]
7
7
URI
https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/944
Collections
  • Radovi istraživača
Institution/Community
Geografski fakultet
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Anđelković, Goran
AU  - Jovanović, Slavoljub
AU  - Manojlović, Sanja
AU  - Samardžić, Ivan
AU  - Živković, Ljiljana
AU  - Šabić, Dejan
AU  - Gatarić, Dragica
AU  - Džinović, Milanka
PY  - 2018
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/944
AB  - Considering recent weather events in Serbia (especially the floods in 2014), a need has arisen for research that would help in identifying extreme weather phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the thresholds above which intense precipitation can be considered as extreme precipitation events in Serbia. In this study, we determined the frequency of precipitation occurring at an intensity above the threshold of an extreme phenomenon (1961-2015), as well as the frequency of precipitation occurring at or above the absolute daily maximum in the reference period (1961-1990). The study sample included daily rainfall observations from 28 stations from the national meteorological network in Serbia. Applying a decile method, all the stations recording precipitation above the threshold of dangerous phenomena on the same day are classified into the corresponding decile. The threshold value was determined as the average value of the extreme annual precipitation in the analyzed period. The cases that are due to the high prevalence listed in the last decile are considered extreme. The results showed that the critical number of observation points above which an event is considered extreme precipitation event is 6.21, and a warning of the danger could be ensured only in the case of neighboring stations in the network. The threshold of extreme precipitation events for the individual stations ranges up to 130 mm. The obtained results might be used to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation events in Serbia in the future.
PB  - MDPI, Basel
T2  - Atmosphere
T1  - Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness
VL  - 9
IS  - 5
DO  - 10.3390/atmos9050188
UR  - conv_1042
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Anđelković, Goran and Jovanović, Slavoljub and Manojlović, Sanja and Samardžić, Ivan and Živković, Ljiljana and Šabić, Dejan and Gatarić, Dragica and Džinović, Milanka",
year = "2018",
abstract = "Considering recent weather events in Serbia (especially the floods in 2014), a need has arisen for research that would help in identifying extreme weather phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the thresholds above which intense precipitation can be considered as extreme precipitation events in Serbia. In this study, we determined the frequency of precipitation occurring at an intensity above the threshold of an extreme phenomenon (1961-2015), as well as the frequency of precipitation occurring at or above the absolute daily maximum in the reference period (1961-1990). The study sample included daily rainfall observations from 28 stations from the national meteorological network in Serbia. Applying a decile method, all the stations recording precipitation above the threshold of dangerous phenomena on the same day are classified into the corresponding decile. The threshold value was determined as the average value of the extreme annual precipitation in the analyzed period. The cases that are due to the high prevalence listed in the last decile are considered extreme. The results showed that the critical number of observation points above which an event is considered extreme precipitation event is 6.21, and a warning of the danger could be ensured only in the case of neighboring stations in the network. The threshold of extreme precipitation events for the individual stations ranges up to 130 mm. The obtained results might be used to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation events in Serbia in the future.",
publisher = "MDPI, Basel",
journal = "Atmosphere",
title = "Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness",
volume = "9",
number = "5",
doi = "10.3390/atmos9050188",
url = "conv_1042"
}
Anđelković, G., Jovanović, S., Manojlović, S., Samardžić, I., Živković, L., Šabić, D., Gatarić, D.,& Džinović, M.. (2018). Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness. in Atmosphere
MDPI, Basel., 9(5).
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9050188
conv_1042
Anđelković G, Jovanović S, Manojlović S, Samardžić I, Živković L, Šabić D, Gatarić D, Džinović M. Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness. in Atmosphere. 2018;9(5).
doi:10.3390/atmos9050188
conv_1042 .
Anđelković, Goran, Jovanović, Slavoljub, Manojlović, Sanja, Samardžić, Ivan, Živković, Ljiljana, Šabić, Dejan, Gatarić, Dragica, Džinović, Milanka, "Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness" in Atmosphere, 9, no. 5 (2018),
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9050188 .,
conv_1042 .

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