TY  - JOUR
AU  - Luković, Jelena
AU  - Chiang, John C. H.
AU  - Blagojević, Dragan
AU  - Sekulić, Aleksandar
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1088
AB  - Californian hydroclimate is strongly seasonal and prone to severe water shortages. Recent changes in climate trends have induced shifts in seasonality, thus exacerbating droughts, wildfires, and adverse water shortage effects on the environment and economy. Previous studies have examined the timing of the seasonal cycle shifts mainly as temperature driven earlier onset of the spring season. In this paper, we address quantitative changes in the onset, amounts, and termination of the precipitation season over the past 6 decades, as well as the large-scale atmospheric circulation underpinning the seasonal cycle changes. We discover that the onset of the rainy season has been progressively delayed since the 1960s, and as a result the precipitation season has become shorter and sharper in California. The progressively later onset of the rainy season is shown to be related to the summer circulation pattern extending into autumn across the North Pacific, in particular, a delay in the strengthening of the Aleutian Low and later southward displacement of the North Pacific westerlies. Plain Language Summary The rainy season over California is projected to show a distinct sharpening of the mean seasonal cycle, with winter precipitation increasing, and both autumn and spring precipitation decreasing. Our analysis of the past 6 decades of data for California suggests autumn decrease is already underway. A delayed start of the rainy season of 27 days since 1960s can exacerbate seasonal droughts and prolong the wildfire season. This delay occurs due to a number of conditions that controls precipitation: the summer circulation pattern has been extending throughout November across the North Pacific, and the wintertime strengthening of the Aleutian Low is delayed. Accordingly, the southward migration of the North Pacific jet stream as well as extratropical storm tracks, which marks the start of the California rainy season, are delayed. More work, using climate models, will be needed to provide a better understanding of atmospheric conditions across the North America and the North Pacific. However, our findings provide observational evidence for the projected rainfall change over California and inform ongoing discussion about the drying/wetting tendencies of the rainy season in California.
PB  - Amer Geophysical Union, Washington
T2  - Geophysical Research Letters
T1  - A Later Onset of the Rainy Season in California
VL  - 48
IS  - 4
DO  - 10.1029/2020GL090350
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1088
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Luković, Jelena and Chiang, John C. H. and Blagojević, Dragan and Sekulić, Aleksandar",
year = "2021",
abstract = "Californian hydroclimate is strongly seasonal and prone to severe water shortages. Recent changes in climate trends have induced shifts in seasonality, thus exacerbating droughts, wildfires, and adverse water shortage effects on the environment and economy. Previous studies have examined the timing of the seasonal cycle shifts mainly as temperature driven earlier onset of the spring season. In this paper, we address quantitative changes in the onset, amounts, and termination of the precipitation season over the past 6 decades, as well as the large-scale atmospheric circulation underpinning the seasonal cycle changes. We discover that the onset of the rainy season has been progressively delayed since the 1960s, and as a result the precipitation season has become shorter and sharper in California. The progressively later onset of the rainy season is shown to be related to the summer circulation pattern extending into autumn across the North Pacific, in particular, a delay in the strengthening of the Aleutian Low and later southward displacement of the North Pacific westerlies. Plain Language Summary The rainy season over California is projected to show a distinct sharpening of the mean seasonal cycle, with winter precipitation increasing, and both autumn and spring precipitation decreasing. Our analysis of the past 6 decades of data for California suggests autumn decrease is already underway. A delayed start of the rainy season of 27 days since 1960s can exacerbate seasonal droughts and prolong the wildfire season. This delay occurs due to a number of conditions that controls precipitation: the summer circulation pattern has been extending throughout November across the North Pacific, and the wintertime strengthening of the Aleutian Low is delayed. Accordingly, the southward migration of the North Pacific jet stream as well as extratropical storm tracks, which marks the start of the California rainy season, are delayed. More work, using climate models, will be needed to provide a better understanding of atmospheric conditions across the North America and the North Pacific. However, our findings provide observational evidence for the projected rainfall change over California and inform ongoing discussion about the drying/wetting tendencies of the rainy season in California.",
publisher = "Amer Geophysical Union, Washington",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
title = "A Later Onset of the Rainy Season in California",
volume = "48",
number = "4",
doi = "10.1029/2020GL090350",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1088"
}

Luković, J., Chiang, J. C. H., Blagojević, D.,& Sekulić, A.. (2021). A Later Onset of the Rainy Season in California. in Geophysical Research Letters
Amer Geophysical Union, Washington., 48(4).
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090350
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1088

Luković J, Chiang JCH, Blagojević D, Sekulić A. A Later Onset of the Rainy Season in California. in Geophysical Research Letters. 2021;48(4).
doi:10.1029/2020GL090350
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1088 .

Luković, Jelena, Chiang, John C. H., Blagojević, Dragan, Sekulić, Aleksandar, "A Later Onset of the Rainy Season in California" in Geophysical Research Letters, 48, no. 4 (2021),
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090350 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1088 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Luković, Jelena
AU  - Blagojević, Dragan
AU  - Kilibarda, Milan
AU  - Bajat, Branislav
PY  - 2015
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/699
AB  - This study examines the spatial pattern of relationships between annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in Serbia, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for the period of 1961-2009. The first correlation analysis between rainfall and the NAO was performed using a Pearson product-moment test. Results suggested negative, mainly statistically significant correlations at annual and winter scales as was expected. However, the highest percentage of stations showed significant result in October suggesting a strong impact of a large scale atmospheric mode throughout a wet season in Serbia. Further spatial analysis that incorporated a spatial autocorrelation statistic of correlation coefficients showed significant clustering at all temporal scales.
PB  - Elsevier Sci Ltd, Oxford
T2  - Spatial Statistics
T1  - Spatial pattern of North Atlantic Oscillation impact on rainfall in Serbia
VL  - 14
SP  - 39
EP  - 52
DO  - 10.1016/j.spasta.2015.04.007
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_699
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Luković, Jelena and Blagojević, Dragan and Kilibarda, Milan and Bajat, Branislav",
year = "2015",
abstract = "This study examines the spatial pattern of relationships between annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in Serbia, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for the period of 1961-2009. The first correlation analysis between rainfall and the NAO was performed using a Pearson product-moment test. Results suggested negative, mainly statistically significant correlations at annual and winter scales as was expected. However, the highest percentage of stations showed significant result in October suggesting a strong impact of a large scale atmospheric mode throughout a wet season in Serbia. Further spatial analysis that incorporated a spatial autocorrelation statistic of correlation coefficients showed significant clustering at all temporal scales.",
publisher = "Elsevier Sci Ltd, Oxford",
journal = "Spatial Statistics",
title = "Spatial pattern of North Atlantic Oscillation impact on rainfall in Serbia",
volume = "14",
pages = "39-52",
doi = "10.1016/j.spasta.2015.04.007",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_699"
}

Luković, J., Blagojević, D., Kilibarda, M.,& Bajat, B.. (2015). Spatial pattern of North Atlantic Oscillation impact on rainfall in Serbia. in Spatial Statistics
Elsevier Sci Ltd, Oxford., 14, 39-52.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2015.04.007
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_699

Luković J, Blagojević D, Kilibarda M, Bajat B. Spatial pattern of North Atlantic Oscillation impact on rainfall in Serbia. in Spatial Statistics. 2015;14:39-52.
doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2015.04.007
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_699 .

Luković, Jelena, Blagojević, Dragan, Kilibarda, Milan, Bajat, Branislav, "Spatial pattern of North Atlantic Oscillation impact on rainfall in Serbia" in Spatial Statistics, 14 (2015):39-52,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2015.04.007 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_699 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Luković, Jelena
AU  - Bajat, Branislav
AU  - Blagojević, Dragan
AU  - Kilibarda, Milan
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/641
AB  - This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961-2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961-2009.
PB  - Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg
T2  - Regional Environmental Change
T1  - Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)
VL  - 14
IS  - 5
SP  - 1789
EP  - 1799
DO  - 10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_641
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Luković, Jelena and Bajat, Branislav and Blagojević, Dragan and Kilibarda, Milan",
year = "2014",
abstract = "This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961-2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961-2009.",
publisher = "Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg",
journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
title = "Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)",
volume = "14",
number = "5",
pages = "1789-1799",
doi = "10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_641"
}

Luković, J., Bajat, B., Blagojević, D.,& Kilibarda, M.. (2014). Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009). in Regional Environmental Change
Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg., 14(5), 1789-1799.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_641

Luković J, Bajat B, Blagojević D, Kilibarda M. Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009). in Regional Environmental Change. 2014;14(5):1789-1799.
doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_641 .

Luković, Jelena, Bajat, Branislav, Blagojević, Dragan, Kilibarda, Milan, "Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)" in Regional Environmental Change, 14, no. 5 (2014):1789-1799,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_641 .