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Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)

Authorized Users Only
2014
Authors
Luković, Jelena
Bajat, Branislav
Blagojević, Dragan
Kilibarda, Milan
Article (Published version)
Metadata
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Abstract
This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961-2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal an...d monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961-2009.

Keywords:
Spatial pattern / Rainfall trend / Spatial autocorrelation / Serbia
Source:
Regional Environmental Change, 2014, 14, 5, 1789-1799
Publisher:
  • Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg
Funding / projects:
  • Studying climate change and its influence on environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation (RS-43007)
  • The role and implementation of the national spatial plan and regional development documents in renewal of strategic research, thinking and governance in Serbia (RS-47014)
  • Spatial, environmental, energy and social aspects of developing settlements and climate change - mutual impacts (RS-36035)
  • Serbian geodetic infrastructure advancement for the needs of a modern state survey (RS-36020)

DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x

ISSN: 1436-3798

WoS: 000342455400009

Scopus: 2-s2.0-84907708808
[ Google Scholar ]
28
25
URI
https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/641
Collections
  • Radovi istraživača
Institution/Community
Geografski fakultet
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Luković, Jelena
AU  - Bajat, Branislav
AU  - Blagojević, Dragan
AU  - Kilibarda, Milan
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/641
AB  - This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961-2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961-2009.
PB  - Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg
T2  - Regional Environmental Change
T1  - Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)
VL  - 14
IS  - 5
SP  - 1789
EP  - 1799
DO  - 10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x
UR  - conv_920
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Luković, Jelena and Bajat, Branislav and Blagojević, Dragan and Kilibarda, Milan",
year = "2014",
abstract = "This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961-2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961-2009.",
publisher = "Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg",
journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
title = "Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)",
volume = "14",
number = "5",
pages = "1789-1799",
doi = "10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x",
url = "conv_920"
}
Luković, J., Bajat, B., Blagojević, D.,& Kilibarda, M.. (2014). Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009). in Regional Environmental Change
Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg., 14(5), 1789-1799.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x
conv_920
Luković J, Bajat B, Blagojević D, Kilibarda M. Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009). in Regional Environmental Change. 2014;14(5):1789-1799.
doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x
conv_920 .
Luković, Jelena, Bajat, Branislav, Blagojević, Dragan, Kilibarda, Milan, "Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)" in Regional Environmental Change, 14, no. 5 (2014):1789-1799,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x .,
conv_920 .

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