Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)
Abstract
This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961-2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal an...d monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961-2009.
Keywords:
Spatial pattern / Rainfall trend / Spatial autocorrelation / SerbiaSource:
Regional Environmental Change, 2014, 14, 5, 1789-1799Publisher:
- Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg
Funding / projects:
- Studying climate change and its influence on environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation (RS-43007)
- The role and implementation of the national spatial plan and regional development documents in renewal of strategic research, thinking and governance in Serbia (RS-47014)
- Spatial, environmental, energy and social aspects of developing settlements and climate change - mutual impacts (RS-36035)
- Serbian geodetic infrastructure advancement for the needs of a modern state survey (RS-36020)
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x
ISSN: 1436-3798
WoS: 000342455400009
Scopus: 2-s2.0-84907708808
Collections
Institution/Community
Geografski fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Luković, Jelena AU - Bajat, Branislav AU - Blagojević, Dragan AU - Kilibarda, Milan PY - 2014 UR - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/641 AB - This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961-2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961-2009. PB - Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg T2 - Regional Environmental Change T1 - Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009) VL - 14 IS - 5 SP - 1789 EP - 1799 DO - 10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_641 ER -
@article{ author = "Luković, Jelena and Bajat, Branislav and Blagojević, Dragan and Kilibarda, Milan", year = "2014", abstract = "This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961-2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961-2009.", publisher = "Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg", journal = "Regional Environmental Change", title = "Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)", volume = "14", number = "5", pages = "1789-1799", doi = "10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_641" }
Luković, J., Bajat, B., Blagojević, D.,& Kilibarda, M.. (2014). Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009). in Regional Environmental Change Springer Heidelberg, Heidelberg., 14(5), 1789-1799. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_641
Luković J, Bajat B, Blagojević D, Kilibarda M. Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009). in Regional Environmental Change. 2014;14(5):1789-1799. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_641 .
Luković, Jelena, Bajat, Branislav, Blagojević, Dragan, Kilibarda, Milan, "Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)" in Regional Environmental Change, 14, no. 5 (2014):1789-1799, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x ., https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_641 .