TY  - JOUR
AU  - Vyklyuk, Yaroslav
AU  - Radovanović, Milan
AU  - Stanojević, Gorica
AU  - Petrović, Marko D.
AU  - Ćurčić, Nina
AU  - Milenković, Milan
AU  - Malinović-Miličević, Slavica
AU  - Milovanović, Boško
AU  - Yamashkin, Anatoly A.
AU  - Milanović-Pešić, Ana
AU  - Lukić, Dobrila
AU  - Gajić, Mirjana
PY  - 2020
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1072
AB  - The impact of solar activity on environmental processes is difficult to understand and complex for empirical modeling. This study aimed to establish forecast models of the meteorological conditions in the forest fire areas based on the solar activity parameters applying the neural networks approach. During July and August 2018, severe forest fires simultaneously occurred in the State of California (USA), Portugal, and Greece. Air temperature and humidity data together with solar parameters (integral flux of solar protons, differential electron flux and proton flux, solar wind plasma parameters, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm data) were used in long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network ensembles. It is found that solar activity mostly affects the humidity for two stations in California and Portugal (an increase in the integral flux of solar protons of > 30 MeV by 10% increases the humidity by 3.25%, 1.65%, and 1.57%, respectively). Furthermore, an increase in air temperature of 10% increases the humidity by 2.55%, 2.01%, and 0.26%, respectively. It is shown that temperature is less sensitive to changes in solar parameters but depends on previous conditions (previous increase of 10% increases the current temperature by 0.75%, 0.34%, and 0.33%, respectively). Humidity in Greece is mostly impacted by solar flux F10.7 cm and previous values of humidity. An increase in these factors by 10% will lead to a decrease in the humidity of 3.89% or an increase of 1.31%, while air temperature mostly depends on ion temperature. If this factor increases by 10%, it will lead to air temperature rising by 0.42%.
PB  - Basel : MDPI
T2  - Sustainability
T1  - Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece
VL  - 12
IS  - 24
DO  - 10.3390/su122410261
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1072
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Vyklyuk, Yaroslav and Radovanović, Milan and Stanojević, Gorica and Petrović, Marko D. and Ćurčić, Nina and Milenković, Milan and Malinović-Miličević, Slavica and Milovanović, Boško and Yamashkin, Anatoly A. and Milanović-Pešić, Ana and Lukić, Dobrila and Gajić, Mirjana",
year = "2020",
abstract = "The impact of solar activity on environmental processes is difficult to understand and complex for empirical modeling. This study aimed to establish forecast models of the meteorological conditions in the forest fire areas based on the solar activity parameters applying the neural networks approach. During July and August 2018, severe forest fires simultaneously occurred in the State of California (USA), Portugal, and Greece. Air temperature and humidity data together with solar parameters (integral flux of solar protons, differential electron flux and proton flux, solar wind plasma parameters, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm data) were used in long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network ensembles. It is found that solar activity mostly affects the humidity for two stations in California and Portugal (an increase in the integral flux of solar protons of > 30 MeV by 10% increases the humidity by 3.25%, 1.65%, and 1.57%, respectively). Furthermore, an increase in air temperature of 10% increases the humidity by 2.55%, 2.01%, and 0.26%, respectively. It is shown that temperature is less sensitive to changes in solar parameters but depends on previous conditions (previous increase of 10% increases the current temperature by 0.75%, 0.34%, and 0.33%, respectively). Humidity in Greece is mostly impacted by solar flux F10.7 cm and previous values of humidity. An increase in these factors by 10% will lead to a decrease in the humidity of 3.89% or an increase of 1.31%, while air temperature mostly depends on ion temperature. If this factor increases by 10%, it will lead to air temperature rising by 0.42%.",
publisher = "Basel : MDPI",
journal = "Sustainability",
title = "Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece",
volume = "12",
number = "24",
doi = "10.3390/su122410261",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1072"
}

Vyklyuk, Y., Radovanović, M., Stanojević, G., Petrović, M. D., Ćurčić, N., Milenković, M., Malinović-Miličević, S., Milovanović, B., Yamashkin, A. A., Milanović-Pešić, A., Lukić, D.,& Gajić, M.. (2020). Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece. in Sustainability
Basel : MDPI., 12(24).
https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410261
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1072

Vyklyuk Y, Radovanović M, Stanojević G, Petrović MD, Ćurčić N, Milenković M, Malinović-Miličević S, Milovanović B, Yamashkin AA, Milanović-Pešić A, Lukić D, Gajić M. Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece. in Sustainability. 2020;12(24).
doi:10.3390/su122410261
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1072 .

Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Radovanović, Milan, Stanojević, Gorica, Petrović, Marko D., Ćurčić, Nina, Milenković, Milan, Malinović-Miličević, Slavica, Milovanović, Boško, Yamashkin, Anatoly A., Milanović-Pešić, Ana, Lukić, Dobrila, Gajić, Mirjana, "Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece" in Sustainability, 12, no. 24 (2020),
https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410261 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1072 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milenković, Milan
AU  - Yamashkin, Anatoly A.
AU  - Ducić, Vladan
AU  - Babić, Violeta
AU  - Govedar, Zoran
PY  - 2017
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/864
AB  - The data on forest fires in Portugal in the period 1980-2015 were used in the research: the annual number of forest fires, the annual burned area and the average burned area per fire. Increasing trend of the annual number of forest fires (statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01), nonsignificant increasing trend of the annual burned area and decreasing trend of the average burned area per fire (statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01) were recorded. Portugal is the most endangered country by forest fires in comparison with the other European countries. During the research period, fires in Portugal covered 23.6% of the total burned area in five the most affected European countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece). In the research of the connection between forest fires and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was used. Monthly, seasonal and annual values of the AMO index were used in calculations. All R values recorded for the annual number of fires were positive and statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01. The highest values were recorded for August (0.543) and for summer (0.525). With the annual burned area all R values were also positive and the highest one on the seasonal level was for summer (0.359). With the average burned area per fire all R values were negative (-0.428 was recorded for winter). The results of the research could be applied in the fire danger forecast for periods of several months. Other climate indices should also be considered in future research.
PB  - Beograd : Srpska akademija nauka i umetnosti SANU - Geografski institut "Jovan Cvijić"
T2  - Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU
T1  - Forest fires in Portugal - the connection with the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)
VL  - 67
IS  - 1
SP  - 27
EP  - 35
DO  - 10.2298/IJGI1701027M
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_864
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Milenković, Milan and Yamashkin, Anatoly A. and Ducić, Vladan and Babić, Violeta and Govedar, Zoran",
year = "2017",
abstract = "The data on forest fires in Portugal in the period 1980-2015 were used in the research: the annual number of forest fires, the annual burned area and the average burned area per fire. Increasing trend of the annual number of forest fires (statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01), nonsignificant increasing trend of the annual burned area and decreasing trend of the average burned area per fire (statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01) were recorded. Portugal is the most endangered country by forest fires in comparison with the other European countries. During the research period, fires in Portugal covered 23.6% of the total burned area in five the most affected European countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece). In the research of the connection between forest fires and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was used. Monthly, seasonal and annual values of the AMO index were used in calculations. All R values recorded for the annual number of fires were positive and statistically significant at p  lt = 0.01. The highest values were recorded for August (0.543) and for summer (0.525). With the annual burned area all R values were also positive and the highest one on the seasonal level was for summer (0.359). With the average burned area per fire all R values were negative (-0.428 was recorded for winter). The results of the research could be applied in the fire danger forecast for periods of several months. Other climate indices should also be considered in future research.",
publisher = "Beograd : Srpska akademija nauka i umetnosti SANU - Geografski institut "Jovan Cvijić"",
journal = "Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU",
title = "Forest fires in Portugal - the connection with the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)",
volume = "67",
number = "1",
pages = "27-35",
doi = "10.2298/IJGI1701027M",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_864"
}

Milenković, M., Yamashkin, A. A., Ducić, V., Babić, V.,& Govedar, Z.. (2017). Forest fires in Portugal - the connection with the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). in Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU
Beograd : Srpska akademija nauka i umetnosti SANU - Geografski institut "Jovan Cvijić"., 67(1), 27-35.
https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1701027M
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_864

Milenković M, Yamashkin AA, Ducić V, Babić V, Govedar Z. Forest fires in Portugal - the connection with the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). in Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU. 2017;67(1):27-35.
doi:10.2298/IJGI1701027M
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_864 .

Milenković, Milan, Yamashkin, Anatoly A., Ducić, Vladan, Babić, Violeta, Govedar, Zoran, "Forest fires in Portugal - the connection with the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)" in Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU, 67, no. 1 (2017):27-35,
https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1701027M .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_864 .