Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece
2020
Аутори
Vyklyuk, YaroslavRadovanović, Milan
Stanojević, Gorica
Petrović, Marko D.
Ćurčić, Nina
Milenković, Milan
Malinović-Miličević, Slavica
Milovanović, Boško
Yamashkin, Anatoly A.
Milanović-Pešić, Ana
Lukić, Dobrila
Gajić, Mirjana
Чланак у часопису (Објављена верзија)
Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о документуАпстракт
The impact of solar activity on environmental processes is difficult to understand and complex for empirical modeling. This study aimed to establish forecast models of the meteorological conditions in the forest fire areas based on the solar activity parameters applying the neural networks approach. During July and August 2018, severe forest fires simultaneously occurred in the State of California (USA), Portugal, and Greece. Air temperature and humidity data together with solar parameters (integral flux of solar protons, differential electron flux and proton flux, solar wind plasma parameters, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm data) were used in long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network ensembles. It is found that solar activity mostly affects the humidity for two stations in California and Portugal (an increase in the integral flux of solar protons of > 30 MeV by 10% increases the humidity by 3.25%, 1.65%, and 1.57%, respectively). Furthermore, an increase in air temperatu...re of 10% increases the humidity by 2.55%, 2.01%, and 0.26%, respectively. It is shown that temperature is less sensitive to changes in solar parameters but depends on previous conditions (previous increase of 10% increases the current temperature by 0.75%, 0.34%, and 0.33%, respectively). Humidity in Greece is mostly impacted by solar flux F10.7 cm and previous values of humidity. An increase in these factors by 10% will lead to a decrease in the humidity of 3.89% or an increase of 1.31%, while air temperature mostly depends on ion temperature. If this factor increases by 10%, it will lead to air temperature rising by 0.42%.
Кључне речи:
solar activity / forest fires / recurrent neural networks / LSTM ensembleИзвор:
Sustainability, 2020, 12, 24Издавач:
- Basel : MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/su122410261
ISSN: 2071-1050
WoS: 000603342600001
Scopus: 2-s2.0-85097426381
Колекције
Институција/група
Geografski fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Vyklyuk, Yaroslav AU - Radovanović, Milan AU - Stanojević, Gorica AU - Petrović, Marko D. AU - Ćurčić, Nina AU - Milenković, Milan AU - Malinović-Miličević, Slavica AU - Milovanović, Boško AU - Yamashkin, Anatoly A. AU - Milanović-Pešić, Ana AU - Lukić, Dobrila AU - Gajić, Mirjana PY - 2020 UR - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1072 AB - The impact of solar activity on environmental processes is difficult to understand and complex for empirical modeling. This study aimed to establish forecast models of the meteorological conditions in the forest fire areas based on the solar activity parameters applying the neural networks approach. During July and August 2018, severe forest fires simultaneously occurred in the State of California (USA), Portugal, and Greece. Air temperature and humidity data together with solar parameters (integral flux of solar protons, differential electron flux and proton flux, solar wind plasma parameters, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm data) were used in long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network ensembles. It is found that solar activity mostly affects the humidity for two stations in California and Portugal (an increase in the integral flux of solar protons of > 30 MeV by 10% increases the humidity by 3.25%, 1.65%, and 1.57%, respectively). Furthermore, an increase in air temperature of 10% increases the humidity by 2.55%, 2.01%, and 0.26%, respectively. It is shown that temperature is less sensitive to changes in solar parameters but depends on previous conditions (previous increase of 10% increases the current temperature by 0.75%, 0.34%, and 0.33%, respectively). Humidity in Greece is mostly impacted by solar flux F10.7 cm and previous values of humidity. An increase in these factors by 10% will lead to a decrease in the humidity of 3.89% or an increase of 1.31%, while air temperature mostly depends on ion temperature. If this factor increases by 10%, it will lead to air temperature rising by 0.42%. PB - Basel : MDPI T2 - Sustainability T1 - Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece VL - 12 IS - 24 DO - 10.3390/su122410261 UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1072 ER -
@article{ author = "Vyklyuk, Yaroslav and Radovanović, Milan and Stanojević, Gorica and Petrović, Marko D. and Ćurčić, Nina and Milenković, Milan and Malinović-Miličević, Slavica and Milovanović, Boško and Yamashkin, Anatoly A. and Milanović-Pešić, Ana and Lukić, Dobrila and Gajić, Mirjana", year = "2020", abstract = "The impact of solar activity on environmental processes is difficult to understand and complex for empirical modeling. This study aimed to establish forecast models of the meteorological conditions in the forest fire areas based on the solar activity parameters applying the neural networks approach. During July and August 2018, severe forest fires simultaneously occurred in the State of California (USA), Portugal, and Greece. Air temperature and humidity data together with solar parameters (integral flux of solar protons, differential electron flux and proton flux, solar wind plasma parameters, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm data) were used in long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network ensembles. It is found that solar activity mostly affects the humidity for two stations in California and Portugal (an increase in the integral flux of solar protons of > 30 MeV by 10% increases the humidity by 3.25%, 1.65%, and 1.57%, respectively). Furthermore, an increase in air temperature of 10% increases the humidity by 2.55%, 2.01%, and 0.26%, respectively. It is shown that temperature is less sensitive to changes in solar parameters but depends on previous conditions (previous increase of 10% increases the current temperature by 0.75%, 0.34%, and 0.33%, respectively). Humidity in Greece is mostly impacted by solar flux F10.7 cm and previous values of humidity. An increase in these factors by 10% will lead to a decrease in the humidity of 3.89% or an increase of 1.31%, while air temperature mostly depends on ion temperature. If this factor increases by 10%, it will lead to air temperature rising by 0.42%.", publisher = "Basel : MDPI", journal = "Sustainability", title = "Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece", volume = "12", number = "24", doi = "10.3390/su122410261", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1072" }
Vyklyuk, Y., Radovanović, M., Stanojević, G., Petrović, M. D., Ćurčić, N., Milenković, M., Malinović-Miličević, S., Milovanović, B., Yamashkin, A. A., Milanović-Pešić, A., Lukić, D.,& Gajić, M.. (2020). Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece. in Sustainability Basel : MDPI., 12(24). https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410261 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1072
Vyklyuk Y, Radovanović M, Stanojević G, Petrović MD, Ćurčić N, Milenković M, Malinović-Miličević S, Milovanović B, Yamashkin AA, Milanović-Pešić A, Lukić D, Gajić M. Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece. in Sustainability. 2020;12(24). doi:10.3390/su122410261 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1072 .
Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Radovanović, Milan, Stanojević, Gorica, Petrović, Marko D., Ćurčić, Nina, Milenković, Milan, Malinović-Miličević, Slavica, Milovanović, Boško, Yamashkin, Anatoly A., Milanović-Pešić, Ana, Lukić, Dobrila, Gajić, Mirjana, "Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece" in Sustainability, 12, no. 24 (2020), https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410261 ., https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1072 .