Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
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2019
Authors
Bloeschl, GuenterHall, Julia
Viglione, Alberto
Perdigao, Rui A. P.
Parajka, Juraj
Merz, Bruno
Lun, David
Arheimer, Berit
Aronica, Giuseppe T.
Bilibashi, Ardian
Bohac, Milon
Bonacci, Ognjen
Borga, Marco
Canjevac, Ivan
Castellarin, Attilio
Chirico, Giovanni B.
Claps, Pierluigi
Frolova, Natalia
Ganora, Daniele
Gorbachova, Liudmyla
Gul, Ali
Hannaford, Jamie
Harrigan, Shaun
Kireeva, Maria
Kiss, Andrea
Kjeldsen, Thomas R.
Kohnova, Silvia
Koskela, Jarkko J.
Ledvinka, Ondrej
Macdonald, Neil
Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
Mediero, Luis
Merz, Ralf
Molnar, Peter
Montanari, Alberto
Murphy, Conor
Osuch, Marzena
Ovcharuk, Valeryia
Radevski, Ivan
Salinas, Jose L.
Sauquet, Eric
Sraj, Mojca
Szolgay, Jan
Volpi, Elena
Wilson, Donna
Zaimi, Klodian
Živković, Nenad
Article (Published version)
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing ...floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.
Source:
Nature, 2019, 573, 7772, 108-+Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group, London
Funding / projects:
- FLOODCHANGE - Deciphering River Flood Change (EU-FP7-291152)
- SYSTEM-RISK - A Large-Scale Systems Approach to Flood Risk Assessment and Management (EU-H2020-676027)
- DFG 'SPATE' project - German Research Foundation (DFG) [FOR 2416]
- FWF 'SPATE' project [I 3174]
- Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) projectRussian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) [17-05-41030 rgo_a]
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
ISSN: 0028-0836
PubMed: 31462777
WoS: 000483967700043
Scopus: 2-s2.0-85071788448
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Institution/Community
Geografski fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Bloeschl, Guenter AU - Hall, Julia AU - Viglione, Alberto AU - Perdigao, Rui A. P. AU - Parajka, Juraj AU - Merz, Bruno AU - Lun, David AU - Arheimer, Berit AU - Aronica, Giuseppe T. AU - Bilibashi, Ardian AU - Bohac, Milon AU - Bonacci, Ognjen AU - Borga, Marco AU - Canjevac, Ivan AU - Castellarin, Attilio AU - Chirico, Giovanni B. AU - Claps, Pierluigi AU - Frolova, Natalia AU - Ganora, Daniele AU - Gorbachova, Liudmyla AU - Gul, Ali AU - Hannaford, Jamie AU - Harrigan, Shaun AU - Kireeva, Maria AU - Kiss, Andrea AU - Kjeldsen, Thomas R. AU - Kohnova, Silvia AU - Koskela, Jarkko J. AU - Ledvinka, Ondrej AU - Macdonald, Neil AU - Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria AU - Mediero, Luis AU - Merz, Ralf AU - Molnar, Peter AU - Montanari, Alberto AU - Murphy, Conor AU - Osuch, Marzena AU - Ovcharuk, Valeryia AU - Radevski, Ivan AU - Salinas, Jose L. AU - Sauquet, Eric AU - Sraj, Mojca AU - Szolgay, Jan AU - Volpi, Elena AU - Wilson, Donna AU - Zaimi, Klodian AU - Živković, Nenad PY - 2019 UR - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/993 AB - Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management. PB - Nature Publishing Group, London T2 - Nature T1 - Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods VL - 573 IS - 7772 SP - 108 EP - + DO - 10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6 UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993 ER -
@article{ author = "Bloeschl, Guenter and Hall, Julia and Viglione, Alberto and Perdigao, Rui A. P. and Parajka, Juraj and Merz, Bruno and Lun, David and Arheimer, Berit and Aronica, Giuseppe T. and Bilibashi, Ardian and Bohac, Milon and Bonacci, Ognjen and Borga, Marco and Canjevac, Ivan and Castellarin, Attilio and Chirico, Giovanni B. and Claps, Pierluigi and Frolova, Natalia and Ganora, Daniele and Gorbachova, Liudmyla and Gul, Ali and Hannaford, Jamie and Harrigan, Shaun and Kireeva, Maria and Kiss, Andrea and Kjeldsen, Thomas R. and Kohnova, Silvia and Koskela, Jarkko J. and Ledvinka, Ondrej and Macdonald, Neil and Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria and Mediero, Luis and Merz, Ralf and Molnar, Peter and Montanari, Alberto and Murphy, Conor and Osuch, Marzena and Ovcharuk, Valeryia and Radevski, Ivan and Salinas, Jose L. and Sauquet, Eric and Sraj, Mojca and Szolgay, Jan and Volpi, Elena and Wilson, Donna and Zaimi, Klodian and Živković, Nenad", year = "2019", abstract = "Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.", publisher = "Nature Publishing Group, London", journal = "Nature", title = "Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods", volume = "573", number = "7772", pages = "108-+", doi = "10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993" }
Bloeschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigao, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Bohac, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Canjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gul, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnova, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Sraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K.,& Živković, N.. (2019). Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. in Nature Nature Publishing Group, London., 573(7772), 108-+. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993
Bloeschl G, Hall J, Viglione A, Perdigao RAP, Parajka J, Merz B, Lun D, Arheimer B, Aronica GT, Bilibashi A, Bohac M, Bonacci O, Borga M, Canjevac I, Castellarin A, Chirico GB, Claps P, Frolova N, Ganora D, Gorbachova L, Gul A, Hannaford J, Harrigan S, Kireeva M, Kiss A, Kjeldsen TR, Kohnova S, Koskela JJ, Ledvinka O, Macdonald N, Mavrova-Guirguinova M, Mediero L, Merz R, Molnar P, Montanari A, Murphy C, Osuch M, Ovcharuk V, Radevski I, Salinas JL, Sauquet E, Sraj M, Szolgay J, Volpi E, Wilson D, Zaimi K, Živković N. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. in Nature. 2019;573(7772):108-+. doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993 .
Bloeschl, Guenter, Hall, Julia, Viglione, Alberto, Perdigao, Rui A. P., Parajka, Juraj, Merz, Bruno, Lun, David, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bohac, Milon, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Canjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Frolova, Natalia, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gul, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnova, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Salinas, Jose L., Sauquet, Eric, Sraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, Živković, Nenad, "Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods" in Nature, 573, no. 7772 (2019):108-+, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6 ., https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993 .