Assessment of the impact of depopulation on soil erosion: case study - Republika Srpska (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Abstract

Soil erosion is one of the most significant environmental problems in the Republika Srpska / Bosnia and Herzegovina. The 1992-1995 civil war left serious consequences, and together with the depopulation process in the last few decades, it had a significant impact on the intensity of erosion. Depopulation of the Republika Srpska (RS) is evident from the 2013 B&H population and housing census. The results showed that there are 400,846 fewer inhabitants in the RS, and of the total number of settlements, 88.01% are depopulated. The Erosion Potential Method (EPM) was used to map soil erosion and calculate annual gross erosion in the RS. This showed an evident decrease in erosion intensity throughout most of the Entity. This research is an attempt to assess the depopulation impact on soil erosion intensity and gross erosion in the RS using the Erosion Potential Method and statistical analysis. Statistical analysis of 44 municipalities in the RS revealed a significant regression relationship between a decrease in sediment production and a decrease in population. The linear regression coefficient in these municipalities ranged from 0.72 to 0.95, and the coefficient of determination ranged from 0.52 to 0.91. The regression analysis included 1,248 settlements in the RS where there was a change in sediment production and in the population. The Pearson Correlation Coefficient for these settlements is 0.79, while the coefficient of determination for the observed variables is 0.63. This methodological approach represents a good basis for future research, and for all integrated water management projects, soil protection, forest ecosystems and environmental protection, spatial planning, agriculture and other human activities.