Challenges Ahead: Mitigating Air Transport Carbon Emissions
Апстракт
In this paper we confront widely accepted global climate stabilization goals (70% reduction of CO2 emissions) with the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) forecasts of future commercial aviation growth, in order to explore the real possibilities of realizing these climate stabilization goals. By using ICAO forecasts, we clearly show that, instead of the proclaimed 70% reduction of CO2 emissions, air transport's CO2 emissions are going to rise five-fold (4.9 times) in the 2005-40 period. But even if a 70% increase of aviation's energy efficiency and reduction of CO2 emissions could be somehow (miraculously) achieved, CO2 emissions of air transport would be higher by 50% in 2040 (than in 2005), due to the sudden increase in the volume of air-transport tourist trips. So, if the aim is to achieve ambitious energy consumption and GHG reduction for air transport within the next few decades, policies should aim at reducing total consumption, which means reducing VKT not just ve...hicle-specific consumption. Due to the extremely high growth rates in the volume of air traffic, it is highly unlikely that technical progress of engines will be sufficient to reduce overall emissions or even keep them at today's levels. Hence, the policy focus should shift to more rigorous and efficient implementation of market-driven instruments, which, apart from creating incentives to develop and use low-emission technologies, can also reduce the demand for travel.
Кључне речи:
air transport / CO2 emissions / radiative forcing / energy efficiencyИзвор:
Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 2016, 25, 5, 1975-1984Издавач:
- Olsztyn : HARD Publishing Company
Финансирање / пројекти:
- Ministry of Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia
- Системи за одвођење кишних вода као део урбане и саобраћајне инфраструктуре (RS-MESTD-Technological Development (TD or TR)-37010)
DOI: 10.15244/pjoes/62700
ISSN: 1230-1485
WoS: 000385472400020
Scopus: 2-s2.0-84992702747
Колекције
Институција/група
Geografski fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Jovanović, Miomir AU - Vračarević, Bojan PY - 2016 UR - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/798 AB - In this paper we confront widely accepted global climate stabilization goals (70% reduction of CO2 emissions) with the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) forecasts of future commercial aviation growth, in order to explore the real possibilities of realizing these climate stabilization goals. By using ICAO forecasts, we clearly show that, instead of the proclaimed 70% reduction of CO2 emissions, air transport's CO2 emissions are going to rise five-fold (4.9 times) in the 2005-40 period. But even if a 70% increase of aviation's energy efficiency and reduction of CO2 emissions could be somehow (miraculously) achieved, CO2 emissions of air transport would be higher by 50% in 2040 (than in 2005), due to the sudden increase in the volume of air-transport tourist trips. So, if the aim is to achieve ambitious energy consumption and GHG reduction for air transport within the next few decades, policies should aim at reducing total consumption, which means reducing VKT not just vehicle-specific consumption. Due to the extremely high growth rates in the volume of air traffic, it is highly unlikely that technical progress of engines will be sufficient to reduce overall emissions or even keep them at today's levels. Hence, the policy focus should shift to more rigorous and efficient implementation of market-driven instruments, which, apart from creating incentives to develop and use low-emission technologies, can also reduce the demand for travel. PB - Olsztyn : HARD Publishing Company T2 - Polish Journal of Environmental Studies T1 - Challenges Ahead: Mitigating Air Transport Carbon Emissions VL - 25 IS - 5 SP - 1975 EP - 1984 DO - 10.15244/pjoes/62700 UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_798 ER -
@article{ author = "Jovanović, Miomir and Vračarević, Bojan", year = "2016", abstract = "In this paper we confront widely accepted global climate stabilization goals (70% reduction of CO2 emissions) with the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) forecasts of future commercial aviation growth, in order to explore the real possibilities of realizing these climate stabilization goals. By using ICAO forecasts, we clearly show that, instead of the proclaimed 70% reduction of CO2 emissions, air transport's CO2 emissions are going to rise five-fold (4.9 times) in the 2005-40 period. But even if a 70% increase of aviation's energy efficiency and reduction of CO2 emissions could be somehow (miraculously) achieved, CO2 emissions of air transport would be higher by 50% in 2040 (than in 2005), due to the sudden increase in the volume of air-transport tourist trips. So, if the aim is to achieve ambitious energy consumption and GHG reduction for air transport within the next few decades, policies should aim at reducing total consumption, which means reducing VKT not just vehicle-specific consumption. Due to the extremely high growth rates in the volume of air traffic, it is highly unlikely that technical progress of engines will be sufficient to reduce overall emissions or even keep them at today's levels. Hence, the policy focus should shift to more rigorous and efficient implementation of market-driven instruments, which, apart from creating incentives to develop and use low-emission technologies, can also reduce the demand for travel.", publisher = "Olsztyn : HARD Publishing Company", journal = "Polish Journal of Environmental Studies", title = "Challenges Ahead: Mitigating Air Transport Carbon Emissions", volume = "25", number = "5", pages = "1975-1984", doi = "10.15244/pjoes/62700", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_798" }
Jovanović, M.,& Vračarević, B.. (2016). Challenges Ahead: Mitigating Air Transport Carbon Emissions. in Polish Journal of Environmental Studies Olsztyn : HARD Publishing Company., 25(5), 1975-1984. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/62700 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_798
Jovanović M, Vračarević B. Challenges Ahead: Mitigating Air Transport Carbon Emissions. in Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 2016;25(5):1975-1984. doi:10.15244/pjoes/62700 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_798 .
Jovanović, Miomir, Vračarević, Bojan, "Challenges Ahead: Mitigating Air Transport Carbon Emissions" in Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 25, no. 5 (2016):1975-1984, https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/62700 ., https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_798 .