Citing numerical simulations, climate alarmists believe that global warming will lead to more frequent and more intensive tornadoes. Considering temperature increase data in the contiguous USA, this study has investigated the trend of strong tornadoes in F3+ category in the 1954-2012 period. Statistically significant decrease of tornadoes per year at an average rate of 0.44 has been recorded, that is, 4.4 tornadoes per decade. Tornado increase has been recorded with F0 and F1 categories and the cause of this increase lies in meteorological and non-meteorological factors. By using upper and lower standard deviation values, the stages of tornado activity have been singled out. The 1957-1974 period may be considered as an active stage and the 1978-2009 period as an inactive stage. Upward trend of air temperature increase does not correspond with the downward trend of the number of F3+ tornado category, while the correlation coefficient between these two variables is R = -0.14. This fact d...oes not correspond with the simulation results and output data of various numerical models anticipating an increase in the number and intensity of tornado events in the conditions of surface air temperature growth.
Keywords:
tornado / trends / air temperature / global warming / Fujita Scale / USA
TY - JOUR
AU - Mihajlović, Jovan
AU - Ducić, Vladan
AU - Burić, Dragan
PY - 2015
UR - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/686
AB - Citing numerical simulations, climate alarmists believe that global warming will lead to more frequent and more intensive tornadoes. Considering temperature increase data in the contiguous USA, this study has investigated the trend of strong tornadoes in F3+ category in the 1954-2012 period. Statistically significant decrease of tornadoes per year at an average rate of 0.44 has been recorded, that is, 4.4 tornadoes per decade. Tornado increase has been recorded with F0 and F1 categories and the cause of this increase lies in meteorological and non-meteorological factors. By using upper and lower standard deviation values, the stages of tornado activity have been singled out. The 1957-1974 period may be considered as an active stage and the 1978-2009 period as an inactive stage. Upward trend of air temperature increase does not correspond with the downward trend of the number of F3+ tornado category, while the correlation coefficient between these two variables is R = -0.14. This fact does not correspond with the simulation results and output data of various numerical models anticipating an increase in the number and intensity of tornado events in the conditions of surface air temperature growth.
PB - Srpska akademija nauka i umetnosti SANU - Geografski institut 'Jovan Cvijić', Beograd
T2 - Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU
T1 - Tornado frequency in the USA - meteorological and non-meteorological factors of a downward trend
VL - 65
IS - 3
SP - 269
EP - 280
DO - 10.2298/IJGI1503269M
UR - conv_1013
ER -
@article{
author = "Mihajlović, Jovan and Ducić, Vladan and Burić, Dragan",
year = "2015",
abstract = "Citing numerical simulations, climate alarmists believe that global warming will lead to more frequent and more intensive tornadoes. Considering temperature increase data in the contiguous USA, this study has investigated the trend of strong tornadoes in F3+ category in the 1954-2012 period. Statistically significant decrease of tornadoes per year at an average rate of 0.44 has been recorded, that is, 4.4 tornadoes per decade. Tornado increase has been recorded with F0 and F1 categories and the cause of this increase lies in meteorological and non-meteorological factors. By using upper and lower standard deviation values, the stages of tornado activity have been singled out. The 1957-1974 period may be considered as an active stage and the 1978-2009 period as an inactive stage. Upward trend of air temperature increase does not correspond with the downward trend of the number of F3+ tornado category, while the correlation coefficient between these two variables is R = -0.14. This fact does not correspond with the simulation results and output data of various numerical models anticipating an increase in the number and intensity of tornado events in the conditions of surface air temperature growth.",
publisher = "Srpska akademija nauka i umetnosti SANU - Geografski institut 'Jovan Cvijić', Beograd",
journal = "Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU",
title = "Tornado frequency in the USA - meteorological and non-meteorological factors of a downward trend",
volume = "65",
number = "3",
pages = "269-280",
doi = "10.2298/IJGI1503269M",
url = "conv_1013"
}
Mihajlović, J., Ducić, V.,& Burić, D.. (2015). Tornado frequency in the USA - meteorological and non-meteorological factors of a downward trend. in Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU
Srpska akademija nauka i umetnosti SANU - Geografski institut 'Jovan Cvijić', Beograd., 65(3), 269-280.
https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1503269M
conv_1013
Mihajlović J, Ducić V, Burić D. Tornado frequency in the USA - meteorological and non-meteorological factors of a downward trend. in Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU. 2015;65(3):269-280.
doi:10.2298/IJGI1503269M
conv_1013 .
Mihajlović, Jovan, Ducić, Vladan, Burić, Dragan, "Tornado frequency in the USA - meteorological and non-meteorological factors of a downward trend" in Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta "Jovan Cvijić", SANU, 65, no. 3 (2015):269-280,
https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1503269M .,
conv_1013 .
