GIS and RS-based modelling of potential natural hazard areas in Pehchevo municipality, Republic of Macedonia

Abstract

In this paper, one approach of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) assessment of potential natural hazard areas (excess erosion, landslides, flash floods and fires) is presented. For that purpose Pehchevo Municipality in the easternmost part of the Republic of Macedonia is selected as a case study area because of high local impact of natural hazards on the environment, social-demographic situation and local economy. First of all, most relevant static factors for each type of natural hazard are selected (topography, land cover, anthropogenic objects and infrastructure). With GIS and satellite imagery, multi-layer calculation is performed based on available traditional equations, clustering or discreditation procedures. In such way suitable relatively 'static' natural hazard maps (models) are produced. Then, dynamic (mostly climate related) factors are included in previous models resulting in appropriate scenarios correlated with different amounts of precipitation, temperature, wind direction etc. Finally, GIS based scenarios are evaluated and tested with field check or very fine resolution Google Earth imagery showing good accuracy. Further development of such GIS models in connection with automatic remote meteorological stations and dynamic satellite imagery (like MODIS) will provide on-time warning for coming natural hazard avoiding potential damages or even causalities.