Atmospheric circulation and the precipitation variability in Serbia for period 1949-2004

Abstract

In this paper we have analyzed the correlation between the atmospheric circulation and annual precipitation in Serbia for period 1949-2004. The data for frequency Hess-Brezowsky circulation forms and types were used as indicators of atmospheric circulation. Statistically significant coefficient of a negative sign is obtained for zonal and half-meridional form and a positive sign for meridional form. The strength of correlation is not uniform in the space. According to the multiple linear regression the contribution of atmospheric circulation in the variability annual precipitation of Serbia is 69%. Also, we analyzed the connection between the atmospheric circulation and the mean annual cloudiness. Comparing the results for this two climate elements we have concluded that they show different time-space development for same macrosynoptic conditions. Also, we can speak about the regional aspects of these processes. .

U ovom radu analizirana je povezanost između cirkulacije atmosfere i godišnjih padavinskih suma u Srbiji za period 1949-2004. Kao pokazatelji cirkulacije atmosfere korišćeni su podaci za učestalost Hes-Brezovski cirkulacionih formi i tipova. Statistički značajna veza negativnog znaka dobija se za zonalnu i polumeridionalnu formu i pozitivnog znaka za meridionalnu formu. Pokazane su i neravnomernosti u prostornom rasporedu jačine veze. Zahvaćenost varijanse godišnjih suma padavina Srbije u celini cirkulacijom atmosfere je 69%. U radu je takođe analizirana veza između cirkulacije atmosfere i srednje godišnje oblačnosti u Srbiji. Poređenjem rezultata za ova dva klimatska elementa zaključuje se da oni pokazuju različit prostorno-vremenski razvoj pri istim makrosinoptičkim uslovima. Takođe, može se govoriti i o regionalnom aspektu navedenih procesa. .