Temperature and precipitation changes in Serbia in the second half of the 20th century in the context of global climate change

Abstract

The paper deals with temperature and precipitation trends in the period 1949 -2006 recorded in the network of 18 meteorological stations in Serbia. The second half of the 20th century is particularly interesting for this type of research, because in this period, according to statements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), anthropogenic influence has a dominant role in climate oscillations. This influence is reflected in the increase in global temperature, while in our region it should be noted first of all as decrease of precipitation quantity. For detecting and evaluation of trends Mann-Kendall test was used. Due to poor sensitivity to individual errors and outlayers (i.e. rare, atypical extreme values), for evaluation of the trend movement Senn's method was chosen. At annual level, in several stations (Belgrade, Negotin, Zaječar, Palić, Sombor, Prizren, Zlatibor, Sjenica), statistically significant upward air temperature trend has been noted. At the level of the whole Serbian territory upward air temperature trend is present, although without statistical significance (z=1,44). Similar results have been obtained by the analysis of absolutely maximum air temperatures. Only in Vranje, Smederevska Palanka and Sombor statistically significant upward trend is present; when absolutely minimum temperatures are in question neither upward nor downward trends have been detected in any of the stations. When precipitation is in question (at annual level) insignificant positive trend (z=0,64) has been noted for Serbia on the whole. Negotinska Krajina shows significant negative trend, while the extreme south regions, i.e. south west regions of Serbia (Zlatibor, Sjenica, Prizren) demonstrate statistically significant positive trend. According to this, temperature changes in Serbia in the second half of the 20th century demonstrate to be in compliance with the global change, although they are statistically insignificant. Changes in total precipitation quantities do not justify the hypothesis on dominance of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Annual draught index according to Em. de Marton records irrelevant changes, on the basis of which a conclusion could be drawn that in Serbia on the whole there has been no change in landscape type in the monitored period. In order to examine characteristics of the monitored climatic elements their seasonal values have been analyzed as well. .

U radu su obrađeni trendovi temperatura i padavina u periodu 1949-2006. na mreži od 18 meteoroloških stanica u Srbiji. Druga polovina dvadesetog veka je posebno interesantna za ovu vrstu istraživanja jer u njoj po tvrdnjama Međuvladinog panela za klimatske promene (IPCC) u klimatskim kolebanjima dominira antropogeni uticaj. Taj uticaj se uočava kao globalni porast temperature, a u našem regionu, bi trebalo pre svega da se uoči kao smanjenje količine padavina. Za detektovanje i ocenu trenda korišćen je Man-Kendalov test. Zbog slabe osetljivosti na pojedinačne greške i autlejere (tj. retke, atipično ekstremne vrednosti), za ocenu nagiba trenda je odabran Senov pristup. Na godišnjem nivou, na nekoliko stanica (Beograd, Negotin, Zaječar, Palić, Sombor, Prizren, Zlatibor, Sjenica) je uočen statistički značajan uzlazni trend temperature vazduha. Na nivou cele Srbije, postoji uzlazni trend temperature vazduha, ali bez statističke značajnosti (z=1,44). Slični rezultati se dobijaju i pri analizi apsolutno maksimalnih temperatura vazduha. Samo u Vranju, Smederevskoj Palanci i Somboru postoji statistički značajan uzlazni trend, dok kod apsolutno minimalnih temperatura ni na jednoj stanici nije detektovana značajnost bilo uzlaznog, bilo silaznog trenda. U pogledu padavina (na godišnjem nivou) Srbija u celini beleži nesignifikantan pozitivni trend (z=0,64). Negotinska krajina pokazuje značajan negativan trend, dok krajnji jug, odnosno jugozapad Srbije (Zlatibor, Sjenica, Prizren) pokazuju statistički značajan pozitivan trend. Dakle, promene temperature u Srbiji u drugoj polovini HH veka su po znaku u skladu sa globalnim promenama, ali nisu statistički značajne. Promene količine padavina ne opravdavaju hipotezu o dominaciji antropogenog efekta staklene bašte. Da bi se što detaljnije ispitale karakteristike posmatranih klimatskih elemenata, analizirane su i njihove sezonske vrednosti.