Actual condition of ozone layer on earth with a special review on Serbia

Abstract

This paper's aim is survey of the most recent results on the stratospheric ozone condition on Earth and under Serbian territory, identification of possible causes of its dynamics, as well as projection of condition of stratospheric layer in the future. The decrease of emissions and concentrations of substances that cause ozone depletion is concluded, ozone layer is not in the state of further decomposition while the role of natural factors in its dynamics is much obvious and more significant than previously considered. During period 1979-2005 the decrease of ozone concentration was noticed under Serbian territory cumulatively for 24.5 DU (7.2%). However, by method of flexible trend it was established that process of ozone layer covering dominated from pentad 1992-1996. Inter-annual variations of stratospheric ozone concentration under Serbia have still been in the function of natural causes such as solar and volcanic activities. Key words: ozone layer, ozone holes, Serbia, CFC, natural factors.

Cilj rada je pregled najnovijih rezultata stanja stratosferskog ozona na Zemlji i Srbiji, utvrđivanje mogućih uzroka njegove dinamike, kao i projekcije stanja stratosferskog ozona u budućnosti. Konstatovano je da emisije i koncentracije supstanci koje oštećuju ozonski omotač opadaju, ozonski omotač se dalje ne razgrađuje, a uloga prirodnih faktora u njegovoj dinamici je jasnija i značajnija nego što se ranije smatralo. U periodu 1979-2005, došlo je do pada koncentracije ozona nad teritorijom Srbije kumulativno za 24,5 DU (7,2%). Međutim, metodom fleksibilnog trenda utvrđeno je da od pentade 1992-1996. dominira proces oporavka ozonskog omotača. Međugodišnje varijacije koncentracije stratosferskog ozona nad Srbijom i dalje su u funkciji prirodnih faktora, kao što su Sunčeva i vulkanska aktivnost.