Population development in the Republic of South Africa from 1950 to 1990

Abstract

The specific character of demographic development in South Africa reflects all the controversies of the country's historical, social and economic development. The territory of the most urbanized country in Africa is populated by different nations and different races, all featured by their unique and almost totally different models of demographic development. The most numerous population are the Blacks; its growth is most intensive and influenced primarily by natural reproduction patterns. The increase in the colored population is more moderate, while the Asians, and particularly the Whites, recorded a lower rate of increase and the lower birth rate (although still above the average recorded for the world's most developed countries). Mortality of the population is on the decline, but confirms the difference in natural movements of the analyzed population groups - the Whites, the Blacks, the Asians and the Coloured - and determines the rationality of their reproduction behavior. From that point of view, the Whites and the Asians have shown the most rational reproduction pattern during the last 50 years. All of the South African population groups are in different demographic transition phases; the Blacks are in the early phase, whereas the Whites are nearing the end of the transition. The South African population is characterized by a progressive age structure with a marked predominance of young. The resulting increase of fertile and working-age population points to future demographic problems and the need to contain the population growth. If the current upward trend continues, the size of the South African population will double by 2025.

Specifičnosti u demografskom razvoju Južnoafričke Republike potvrđuju svu kontroverznost njenog istorijskog i društveno-ekonomskog razvitka. Na teritoriji najurbanizovanije zemlje Afrike žive različiti narodi i rase, koji imaju i sopstvene, gotovo dijametralno suprotne modele demografskog razvoja. Najbrojnija je populacija crnaca, čiji je porast najintenzivniji, a pod najvećim uticajem prirodnog obnavljanja. Grupu obojenih karakteriše umereniji porast, dok azijati i posebno belci beleže manje stope brojnog porasta i manje stope nataliteta (mada još uvek iznad proseka razvijenih zemalja sveta). Mortalitet stanovništva je u opadanju, ali potvrđuje različitost prirodnog kretanja analiziranih grupa belaca, crnaca, azijata i obojenih, i određuje racionalnost njihovog reproduktivnog ponašanja. Sa tog aspekta, najracionalniju reprodukciju u poslednjih 50 godina ima belo i azijatsko stanovništvo. Svaka od ovih grupacija nalazi se u različitim fazama demografske tranzicije, crnačko stanovništvo u ranoj fazi, belci na kraju tranzicije. Stanovništvo JAR odlikuje progresivan tip starosne strukture sa izuzetno velikim učešćem mladog stanovništva. To utiče na povećanje fertilnog i radno-sposobnog kontingenta, i ukazuje na buduće demografske probleme i potrebu kontrolisanja populacionog rasta. Ukoliko se nastavi dosadašnji trend porasta, stanovništvo će se do 2025. godine udvostručiti.