Climatic and anthropogenic impacts on forest fires in conditions of extreme fire danger on sandy soils

Abstract

Forests on sandy soils are particularly vulnerable to fire. The study area in this research was Deliblatska peščara (the Deliblato Sands), one of the most endangered areas in Serbia. The linear trends, the polynomial trends and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) were applied. Statistically significant decrease in the number of forest fires was found, while the increasing trends of the burned area and burned forest area were not significant. There was also an increase in the air temperature during the same period. In a study of the connection between forest fires and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), significant values of r were statistically observed only for the annual number of fires. The highest values were recorded for June (-0.373) and July (-0.375), and for summer r = -0.374 (statistically significant at p ≤ .01). As for the AMO in the main fire season (February-August), r = -0.331 (statistically significant at p ≤ .01). In settlements in Deliblatska peščara area, there were trends of the decreasing number of inhabitants, agricultural population, and agricultural households in the investigated period. These trends contribute to the reduction of fire risk. The r value between the dynamics of the number of fires and the population is .50 (statistically significant at p ≤ .01). The reduced agricultural activity contributes to the reduction of fire risk, while increased tourist presence is a risk factor.