Uvođenje prostorne dimenzije u proučavanju kolebanja klime u Srbiji u instrumentalnom periodu

Abstract

Recently, there are many papers analyzing the spatial pattern of air temperature and / or precipitation over the particular area. In this sense, there is very often use of GIS tools and interpolation methods. The use of GIS in climatology is primarily used in climatological maps, depicting the spatial distribution of certain climatic elements. Since the main objective of the thesis is introduction of the spatial approach in the study of climate change in Serbia in the instrumental period, the focus was on the spatial analysis of climatic elements (rainfall, temperature, solar radiation, cloud cover and humidity) and their trends in Serbia in the period 1949-2010. Precipitation and air temperature trend an annual, monthly and seasonal level has been analyzed, applying thematic maps made using web mapping tools. In order to get insight the analysis of the rainfall regime and its uncertainty, rain-spell analysis was performed. General results are showing absence of statistically significant rainfall trends and their spatial coherence. There is, however, slight tendency towards drier conditions during the winter and spring, and the opposite one in the autumn. A significant increase in temperature is detected during the last two decades. The results obtained for Serbia are in line with those obtained for Europe. At many stations in Serbia, there has been a warming trend from 1970s. The negative trend is also calculated for number of sunshine hours, cloud cover and relative humidity. Results generally suggest very weak trends all over the Serbia at annual scale, but show significant spatial patterns...

Poslednjih godina, u stručnoj literaturi iz oblasti klimatologije sve više je radova u kojima se analizira prostorni raspored temperature vazduha i/ili padavina na određenoj teritoriji. U tom smislu, sve češća je primena GIS-a i, u okviru njih, upotreba metoda interpolacije. Korišćenje GIS-a u klimatologiji pre svega ima primenu u izradi klimatoloških karata, na kojima je prikazan prostorni raspored nekog klimatskog elementa Kako je osnovni cilj teze uvođenje prostorne dimenzije u proučavanje promena klime u Srbiji u instrumentalnom periodu, to je akcenat bio na prostornoj analizi klimatskih elemenata i vrednosti njihovih trendova. Razmatran je prostorni raspored padavina, temperature vazduha, insolacije, oblačnosti i relativne vlažnosti vazduha u Srbiji u periodu od 1949. do 2010. godine. Analiziran je raspored trenda padavina i temperature vazduha u Srbiji na godišnjem, mesečnom i sezonskom nivou, prostorni raspored trendova uz pomoć tematskih mapa napravljenih primenom web kartiranja. U cilju detaljnije analize režima i njegove nesigurnosti padavina izvršen je analiza dnevnih padavina po kišnim epizodama, njihovim karakteristikama i uticaju na godišnju sumu padavina. Rezultati trenda padavina ne pokazuju statističku značajnost, kao i prostornu koherentnost. Uočena je, međutim, veoma blaga tendencija ka snižavanju padavina na sezonskom nivou, tokom zime i proleća, kao i ka povećanju tokom jeseni. Značajan porast temperature vazduha prisutan je na većini analiziranih stanica tokom poslednje dve decenije. Rezultati dobijeni za Srbiju u skladu sa onim za Evropu. Na mnogim stanicama u Srbiji uočen je trend otopljavanja počev od kraja 1970-ih godina. Negativan trend karakterističan je za insolaciju, oblačnost i relativnu vlažnost vazduha...