Modelling and mapping of the COVID-19 trajectory and pandemic paths at global scale: A geographer's perspective

2020
Authors
Valjarević, Aleksandar
Milić, Marija
Valjarević, Dragana

Stanojević-Ristić, Zorica
Petrović, Ljiljana
Milanović, Miško

Filipović, Dejan

Ristanović, Branko
Basarin, Biljana

Lukić, Tin

Article (Published version)
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Show full item recordAbstract
In December 2019, the virus SARS-CoV-2 responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan. The virus started to spread from China and dispersed over the rest of the world. In March 2020, WHO (World Health Organization) declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The transmission path of the pandemic was accelerated by different types of transportation. With complete analysis of spatial data, population density, types of traffic networks, and their properties, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 was estimated. GIS (Geographical Information System), numerical methods, and software for network analysis were used in this research to model scenarios of virus distribution on a global scale. The analyzed data included air, railway, marine, and road traffic. In the pandemic research, numerous models of possible trajectory of viruses can be created. Many have a stochastic character. This study includes all countries in the world affected by the COVID-19 up to date. In this study..., GIS methods such as buffer, interpolations, and numerical analysis were used in order to estimate and visualize ongoing COVID-19 pandemic situation. According to the availability of new data, trajectory of virus paths was estimated. On the other hand, sparsely populated areas with poorly developed and small traffic networks (and isolated island territories) tend to be less or not affected as shown by the model. This low-cost approach can be used in order to define important measures that need to be addressed and implemented in order to successfully mitigate the implications of COVID-19 not only on global, but local and regional scales as well.
Keywords:
COVID-19 / GIS / progressions / traffic types / modelling / mappingSource:
Open Geosciences, 2020, 12, 1, 1603-1616Publisher:
- De Gruyter Poland Sp Z O O, Warsaw
DOI: 10.1515/geo-2020-0156
ISSN: 2391-5447
WoS: 000609186700001
Scopus: 2-s2.0-85099098916
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Geografski fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Valjarević, Aleksandar AU - Milić, Marija AU - Valjarević, Dragana AU - Stanojević-Ristić, Zorica AU - Petrović, Ljiljana AU - Milanović, Miško AU - Filipović, Dejan AU - Ristanović, Branko AU - Basarin, Biljana AU - Lukić, Tin PY - 2020 UR - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1067 AB - In December 2019, the virus SARS-CoV-2 responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan. The virus started to spread from China and dispersed over the rest of the world. In March 2020, WHO (World Health Organization) declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The transmission path of the pandemic was accelerated by different types of transportation. With complete analysis of spatial data, population density, types of traffic networks, and their properties, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 was estimated. GIS (Geographical Information System), numerical methods, and software for network analysis were used in this research to model scenarios of virus distribution on a global scale. The analyzed data included air, railway, marine, and road traffic. In the pandemic research, numerous models of possible trajectory of viruses can be created. Many have a stochastic character. This study includes all countries in the world affected by the COVID-19 up to date. In this study, GIS methods such as buffer, interpolations, and numerical analysis were used in order to estimate and visualize ongoing COVID-19 pandemic situation. According to the availability of new data, trajectory of virus paths was estimated. On the other hand, sparsely populated areas with poorly developed and small traffic networks (and isolated island territories) tend to be less or not affected as shown by the model. This low-cost approach can be used in order to define important measures that need to be addressed and implemented in order to successfully mitigate the implications of COVID-19 not only on global, but local and regional scales as well. PB - De Gruyter Poland Sp Z O O, Warsaw T2 - Open Geosciences T1 - Modelling and mapping of the COVID-19 trajectory and pandemic paths at global scale: A geographer's perspective VL - 12 IS - 1 SP - 1603 EP - 1616 DO - 10.1515/geo-2020-0156 UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1067 ER -
@article{ author = "Valjarević, Aleksandar and Milić, Marija and Valjarević, Dragana and Stanojević-Ristić, Zorica and Petrović, Ljiljana and Milanović, Miško and Filipović, Dejan and Ristanović, Branko and Basarin, Biljana and Lukić, Tin", year = "2020", abstract = "In December 2019, the virus SARS-CoV-2 responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan. The virus started to spread from China and dispersed over the rest of the world. In March 2020, WHO (World Health Organization) declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The transmission path of the pandemic was accelerated by different types of transportation. With complete analysis of spatial data, population density, types of traffic networks, and their properties, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 was estimated. GIS (Geographical Information System), numerical methods, and software for network analysis were used in this research to model scenarios of virus distribution on a global scale. The analyzed data included air, railway, marine, and road traffic. In the pandemic research, numerous models of possible trajectory of viruses can be created. Many have a stochastic character. This study includes all countries in the world affected by the COVID-19 up to date. In this study, GIS methods such as buffer, interpolations, and numerical analysis were used in order to estimate and visualize ongoing COVID-19 pandemic situation. According to the availability of new data, trajectory of virus paths was estimated. On the other hand, sparsely populated areas with poorly developed and small traffic networks (and isolated island territories) tend to be less or not affected as shown by the model. This low-cost approach can be used in order to define important measures that need to be addressed and implemented in order to successfully mitigate the implications of COVID-19 not only on global, but local and regional scales as well.", publisher = "De Gruyter Poland Sp Z O O, Warsaw", journal = "Open Geosciences", title = "Modelling and mapping of the COVID-19 trajectory and pandemic paths at global scale: A geographer's perspective", volume = "12", number = "1", pages = "1603-1616", doi = "10.1515/geo-2020-0156", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1067" }
Valjarević, A., Milić, M., Valjarević, D., Stanojević-Ristić, Z., Petrović, L., Milanović, M., Filipović, D., Ristanović, B., Basarin, B.,& Lukić, T.. (2020). Modelling and mapping of the COVID-19 trajectory and pandemic paths at global scale: A geographer's perspective. in Open Geosciences De Gruyter Poland Sp Z O O, Warsaw., 12(1), 1603-1616. https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2020-0156 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1067
Valjarević A, Milić M, Valjarević D, Stanojević-Ristić Z, Petrović L, Milanović M, Filipović D, Ristanović B, Basarin B, Lukić T. Modelling and mapping of the COVID-19 trajectory and pandemic paths at global scale: A geographer's perspective. in Open Geosciences. 2020;12(1):1603-1616. doi:10.1515/geo-2020-0156 https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1067 .
Valjarević, Aleksandar, Milić, Marija, Valjarević, Dragana, Stanojević-Ristić, Zorica, Petrović, Ljiljana, Milanović, Miško, Filipović, Dejan, Ristanović, Branko, Basarin, Biljana, Lukić, Tin, "Modelling and mapping of the COVID-19 trajectory and pandemic paths at global scale: A geographer's perspective" in Open Geosciences, 12, no. 1 (2020):1603-1616, https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2020-0156 ., https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_1067 .