Economic performance of the middle-class transition in Serbia

Abstract

The analytical focus in the paper has been intentionally dispersed: the paper primarily focuses on the analysis of the income and consumption of the middle class and its three subclasses in three transitional subperiods: (a) pre-crisis (2006-2008), (b) recession (2009-2014), and (c) recovery period (2015-2019), but the analysis also covers the interdependence between the economic growth and middle class and consumer basket and middle class, as well as the trend of inequality throughout the transitional period. The middle class is the generator of growth and development of every economy. A strong middle class encourages inclusive economic growth and enhances and strengthens institutions. In the transitional period, and especially in the post-crisis period, the middle class in Serbia failed to secure the position of a stabilizing factor in society and its cohesive influence declined. The costs of property transformation were mostly borne by the middle class, above all by the working class and peasantry. The structure and position of the middle class significantly changed in the transitional period. Because of its social, developmental, economic, institutional and political influence, the middle class in Serbia faces a number of challenges, the most important issue being the following: Will the middle class in Serbia take responsibility for the poverty, rising inequality and development of stable democratic processes in the future?

Analitički fokus u radu je ciljano disperzivan; primarno je usmeren na prihodnu i potrošnu analizu srednje klase i njene tri potklase u tri tranziciona potperioda: (a) pretkrizni (2006-2008), (b) recesioni (2009-2014) i (c) period oporavka (2015-2019), ali je, pored toga, analizom obuhvaćena međuzavisnost privrednog rasta i srednje klase, potrošačke korpe i srednje klase, kao i dimenzija kretanja nejednakosti tokom čitavog tranzicionog perioda. Srednja klasa je generator rasta i razvoja svake ekonomije. Jaka srednja klasa podstiče inkluzivan ekonomski rast, unapređuje i jača institucije. Kako srednja klasa u Srbiji u tranzicionom, a posebno u postkriznom periodu, nije uspela da se pozicionira kao stabilizirajući faktor u društvu, njen kohezioni uticaj je opao. Troškove svojinske transformacije najviše je podnela srednja klasa, pre svega radnička klasa i seljaštvo. Struktura i položaj srednje klase su se značajno izmenili u tranzicionom periodu. Zbog svog društvenog, razvojnog, ekonomskog, socijalnog, institucionalnog i političkog uticaja srednja klasa u Srbiji suočena je sa nizom izazova, od kojih je najvažnije pitanje: da li će srednja klasa u Srbiji u budućnosti preuzeti odgovornost za stepen siromaštva, rastuću nejednakost i razvoj stabilnih demokratskih procesa?