TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bloeschl, Guenter
AU  - Hall, Julia
AU  - Viglione, Alberto
AU  - Perdigao, Rui A. P.
AU  - Parajka, Juraj
AU  - Merz, Bruno
AU  - Lun, David
AU  - Arheimer, Berit
AU  - Aronica, Giuseppe T.
AU  - Bilibashi, Ardian
AU  - Bohac, Milon
AU  - Bonacci, Ognjen
AU  - Borga, Marco
AU  - Canjevac, Ivan
AU  - Castellarin, Attilio
AU  - Chirico, Giovanni B.
AU  - Claps, Pierluigi
AU  - Frolova, Natalia
AU  - Ganora, Daniele
AU  - Gorbachova, Liudmyla
AU  - Gul, Ali
AU  - Hannaford, Jamie
AU  - Harrigan, Shaun
AU  - Kireeva, Maria
AU  - Kiss, Andrea
AU  - Kjeldsen, Thomas R.
AU  - Kohnova, Silvia
AU  - Koskela, Jarkko J.
AU  - Ledvinka, Ondrej
AU  - Macdonald, Neil
AU  - Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
AU  - Mediero, Luis
AU  - Merz, Ralf
AU  - Molnar, Peter
AU  - Montanari, Alberto
AU  - Murphy, Conor
AU  - Osuch, Marzena
AU  - Ovcharuk, Valeryia
AU  - Radevski, Ivan
AU  - Salinas, Jose L.
AU  - Sauquet, Eric
AU  - Sraj, Mojca
AU  - Szolgay, Jan
AU  - Volpi, Elena
AU  - Wilson, Donna
AU  - Zaimi, Klodian
AU  - Živković, Nenad
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/993
AB  - Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.
PB  - Nature Publishing Group, London
T2  - Nature
T1  - Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
VL  - 573
IS  - 7772
SP  - 108
EP  - +
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Bloeschl, Guenter and Hall, Julia and Viglione, Alberto and Perdigao, Rui A. P. and Parajka, Juraj and Merz, Bruno and Lun, David and Arheimer, Berit and Aronica, Giuseppe T. and Bilibashi, Ardian and Bohac, Milon and Bonacci, Ognjen and Borga, Marco and Canjevac, Ivan and Castellarin, Attilio and Chirico, Giovanni B. and Claps, Pierluigi and Frolova, Natalia and Ganora, Daniele and Gorbachova, Liudmyla and Gul, Ali and Hannaford, Jamie and Harrigan, Shaun and Kireeva, Maria and Kiss, Andrea and Kjeldsen, Thomas R. and Kohnova, Silvia and Koskela, Jarkko J. and Ledvinka, Ondrej and Macdonald, Neil and Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria and Mediero, Luis and Merz, Ralf and Molnar, Peter and Montanari, Alberto and Murphy, Conor and Osuch, Marzena and Ovcharuk, Valeryia and Radevski, Ivan and Salinas, Jose L. and Sauquet, Eric and Sraj, Mojca and Szolgay, Jan and Volpi, Elena and Wilson, Donna and Zaimi, Klodian and Živković, Nenad",
year = "2019",
abstract = "Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group, London",
journal = "Nature",
title = "Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods",
volume = "573",
number = "7772",
pages = "108-+",
doi = "10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993"
}

Bloeschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigao, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Bohac, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Canjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gul, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnova, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Sraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K.,& Živković, N.. (2019). Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. in Nature
Nature Publishing Group, London., 573(7772), 108-+.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993

Bloeschl G, Hall J, Viglione A, Perdigao RAP, Parajka J, Merz B, Lun D, Arheimer B, Aronica GT, Bilibashi A, Bohac M, Bonacci O, Borga M, Canjevac I, Castellarin A, Chirico GB, Claps P, Frolova N, Ganora D, Gorbachova L, Gul A, Hannaford J, Harrigan S, Kireeva M, Kiss A, Kjeldsen TR, Kohnova S, Koskela JJ, Ledvinka O, Macdonald N, Mavrova-Guirguinova M, Mediero L, Merz R, Molnar P, Montanari A, Murphy C, Osuch M, Ovcharuk V, Radevski I, Salinas JL, Sauquet E, Sraj M, Szolgay J, Volpi E, Wilson D, Zaimi K, Živković N. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. in Nature. 2019;573(7772):108-+.
doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993 .

Bloeschl, Guenter, Hall, Julia, Viglione, Alberto, Perdigao, Rui A. P., Parajka, Juraj, Merz, Bruno, Lun, David, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bohac, Milon, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Canjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Frolova, Natalia, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gul, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnova, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Salinas, Jose L., Sauquet, Eric, Sraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, Živković, Nenad, "Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods" in Nature, 573, no. 7772 (2019):108-+,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993 .