TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bloeschl, Guenter
AU  - Hall, Julia
AU  - Viglione, Alberto
AU  - Perdigao, Rui A. P.
AU  - Parajka, Juraj
AU  - Merz, Bruno
AU  - Lun, David
AU  - Arheimer, Berit
AU  - Aronica, Giuseppe T.
AU  - Bilibashi, Ardian
AU  - Bohac, Milon
AU  - Bonacci, Ognjen
AU  - Borga, Marco
AU  - Canjevac, Ivan
AU  - Castellarin, Attilio
AU  - Chirico, Giovanni B.
AU  - Claps, Pierluigi
AU  - Frolova, Natalia
AU  - Ganora, Daniele
AU  - Gorbachova, Liudmyla
AU  - Gul, Ali
AU  - Hannaford, Jamie
AU  - Harrigan, Shaun
AU  - Kireeva, Maria
AU  - Kiss, Andrea
AU  - Kjeldsen, Thomas R.
AU  - Kohnova, Silvia
AU  - Koskela, Jarkko J.
AU  - Ledvinka, Ondrej
AU  - Macdonald, Neil
AU  - Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
AU  - Mediero, Luis
AU  - Merz, Ralf
AU  - Molnar, Peter
AU  - Montanari, Alberto
AU  - Murphy, Conor
AU  - Osuch, Marzena
AU  - Ovcharuk, Valeryia
AU  - Radevski, Ivan
AU  - Salinas, Jose L.
AU  - Sauquet, Eric
AU  - Sraj, Mojca
AU  - Szolgay, Jan
AU  - Volpi, Elena
AU  - Wilson, Donna
AU  - Zaimi, Klodian
AU  - Živković, Nenad
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/993
AB  - Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.
PB  - Nature Publishing Group, London
T2  - Nature
T1  - Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
VL  - 573
IS  - 7772
SP  - 108
EP  - +
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Bloeschl, Guenter and Hall, Julia and Viglione, Alberto and Perdigao, Rui A. P. and Parajka, Juraj and Merz, Bruno and Lun, David and Arheimer, Berit and Aronica, Giuseppe T. and Bilibashi, Ardian and Bohac, Milon and Bonacci, Ognjen and Borga, Marco and Canjevac, Ivan and Castellarin, Attilio and Chirico, Giovanni B. and Claps, Pierluigi and Frolova, Natalia and Ganora, Daniele and Gorbachova, Liudmyla and Gul, Ali and Hannaford, Jamie and Harrigan, Shaun and Kireeva, Maria and Kiss, Andrea and Kjeldsen, Thomas R. and Kohnova, Silvia and Koskela, Jarkko J. and Ledvinka, Ondrej and Macdonald, Neil and Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria and Mediero, Luis and Merz, Ralf and Molnar, Peter and Montanari, Alberto and Murphy, Conor and Osuch, Marzena and Ovcharuk, Valeryia and Radevski, Ivan and Salinas, Jose L. and Sauquet, Eric and Sraj, Mojca and Szolgay, Jan and Volpi, Elena and Wilson, Donna and Zaimi, Klodian and Živković, Nenad",
year = "2019",
abstract = "Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group, London",
journal = "Nature",
title = "Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods",
volume = "573",
number = "7772",
pages = "108-+",
doi = "10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993"
}

Bloeschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigao, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Bohac, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Canjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gul, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnova, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Sraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K.,& Živković, N.. (2019). Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. in Nature
Nature Publishing Group, London., 573(7772), 108-+.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993

Bloeschl G, Hall J, Viglione A, Perdigao RAP, Parajka J, Merz B, Lun D, Arheimer B, Aronica GT, Bilibashi A, Bohac M, Bonacci O, Borga M, Canjevac I, Castellarin A, Chirico GB, Claps P, Frolova N, Ganora D, Gorbachova L, Gul A, Hannaford J, Harrigan S, Kireeva M, Kiss A, Kjeldsen TR, Kohnova S, Koskela JJ, Ledvinka O, Macdonald N, Mavrova-Guirguinova M, Mediero L, Merz R, Molnar P, Montanari A, Murphy C, Osuch M, Ovcharuk V, Radevski I, Salinas JL, Sauquet E, Sraj M, Szolgay J, Volpi E, Wilson D, Zaimi K, Živković N. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. in Nature. 2019;573(7772):108-+.
doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993 .

Bloeschl, Guenter, Hall, Julia, Viglione, Alberto, Perdigao, Rui A. P., Parajka, Juraj, Merz, Bruno, Lun, David, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bohac, Milon, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Canjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Frolova, Natalia, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gul, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnova, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Salinas, Jose L., Sauquet, Eric, Sraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, Živković, Nenad, "Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods" in Nature, 573, no. 7772 (2019):108-+,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_993 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milevski, Ivica
AU  - Dragićević, Slavoljub
AU  - Radevski, Ivan
PY  - 2017
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/815
AB  - In this paper, an approach of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) assessment of potential natural hazards (excessive erosion, landslides, torrential floods and forest fires) is presented. For that purpose the Kriva River catchment in the northeastern part of the Republic of Macedonia is selected as a study area because of high local impact of natural hazards on the environment, socio-demographic situation and local economy. First of all, the most relevant static factors for each type of natural hazard are identified (topography, land cover, man-made structures and infrastructure). With GIS and satellite imagery, multi-layer calculation is performed based on available traditional equations, clustering or discreditation procedures. In such way suitable relatively "static" natural hazard maps (models) are produced. Then, dynamic (mostly climate and land use related) factors are included in previous models resulting in appropriate models. Finally, GIS-based models are evaluated and tested with field check or visually on very fine resolution (0.5 m) orthophoto imagery, showing acceptable accuracy. At the end, with combination and overlapping of high risk zones for each hazard type, multi-hazard map (model) is created. The creation of a multi-hazard map is the first important task for the prevention and mitigation of natural hazards in the risk-prone area. Further development of such GIS models in connection with meteorological stations and dynamic satellite imagery (like MODIS) will provide on-time (early) warning for upcoming natural hazards minimizing potential damage. The obtained results could be applied in the field of spatial and urban planning, water and soil management, etc.
PB  - Gebruder Borntraeger, Stuttgart
T2  - Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie
T1  - GIS and Remote Sensing based natural hazard modelling of Kriva River catchment, Republic of Macedonia
VL  - 61
SP  - 213
EP  - 228
DO  - 10.1127/zfg_suppl/2016/0364
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_815
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Milevski, Ivica and Dragićević, Slavoljub and Radevski, Ivan",
year = "2017",
abstract = "In this paper, an approach of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) assessment of potential natural hazards (excessive erosion, landslides, torrential floods and forest fires) is presented. For that purpose the Kriva River catchment in the northeastern part of the Republic of Macedonia is selected as a study area because of high local impact of natural hazards on the environment, socio-demographic situation and local economy. First of all, the most relevant static factors for each type of natural hazard are identified (topography, land cover, man-made structures and infrastructure). With GIS and satellite imagery, multi-layer calculation is performed based on available traditional equations, clustering or discreditation procedures. In such way suitable relatively "static" natural hazard maps (models) are produced. Then, dynamic (mostly climate and land use related) factors are included in previous models resulting in appropriate models. Finally, GIS-based models are evaluated and tested with field check or visually on very fine resolution (0.5 m) orthophoto imagery, showing acceptable accuracy. At the end, with combination and overlapping of high risk zones for each hazard type, multi-hazard map (model) is created. The creation of a multi-hazard map is the first important task for the prevention and mitigation of natural hazards in the risk-prone area. Further development of such GIS models in connection with meteorological stations and dynamic satellite imagery (like MODIS) will provide on-time (early) warning for upcoming natural hazards minimizing potential damage. The obtained results could be applied in the field of spatial and urban planning, water and soil management, etc.",
publisher = "Gebruder Borntraeger, Stuttgart",
journal = "Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie",
title = "GIS and Remote Sensing based natural hazard modelling of Kriva River catchment, Republic of Macedonia",
volume = "61",
pages = "213-228",
doi = "10.1127/zfg_suppl/2016/0364",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_815"
}

Milevski, I., Dragićević, S.,& Radevski, I.. (2017). GIS and Remote Sensing based natural hazard modelling of Kriva River catchment, Republic of Macedonia. in Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie
Gebruder Borntraeger, Stuttgart., 61, 213-228.
https://doi.org/10.1127/zfg_suppl/2016/0364
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_815

Milevski I, Dragićević S, Radevski I. GIS and Remote Sensing based natural hazard modelling of Kriva River catchment, Republic of Macedonia. in Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie. 2017;61:213-228.
doi:10.1127/zfg_suppl/2016/0364
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_815 .

Milevski, Ivica, Dragićević, Slavoljub, Radevski, Ivan, "GIS and Remote Sensing based natural hazard modelling of Kriva River catchment, Republic of Macedonia" in Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie, 61 (2017):213-228,
https://doi.org/10.1127/zfg_suppl/2016/0364 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_815 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bloeschl, Guenter
AU  - Hall, Julia
AU  - Parajka, Juraj
AU  - Perdigao, Rui A. P.
AU  - Merz, Bruno
AU  - Arheimer, Berit
AU  - Aronica, Giuseppe T.
AU  - Bilibashi, Ardian
AU  - Bonacci, Ognjen
AU  - Borga, Marco
AU  - Canjevac, Ivan
AU  - Castellarin, Attilio
AU  - Chirico, Giovanni B.
AU  - Claps, Pierluigi
AU  - Fiala, Kayroly
AU  - Frolova, Natalia
AU  - Gorbachova, Liudmyla
AU  - Gul, Ali
AU  - Hannaford, Jamie
AU  - Harrigan, Shaun
AU  - Kireeva, Maria
AU  - Kiss, Andrea
AU  - Kjeldsen, Thomas R.
AU  - Kohnova, Silvia
AU  - Koskela, Jarkko J.
AU  - Ledvinka, Ondrej
AU  - Macdonald, Neil
AU  - Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
AU  - Mediero, Luis
AU  - Merz, Ralf
AU  - Molnar, Peter
AU  - Montanari, Alberto
AU  - Murphy, Conor
AU  - Osuch, Marzena
AU  - Ovcharuk, Valeryia
AU  - Radevski, Ivan
AU  - Rogger, Magdalena
AU  - Salinas, Jose L.
AU  - Sauquet, Eric
AU  - Sraj, Mojca
AU  - Szolgay, Jan
AU  - Viglione, Alberto
AU  - Volpi, Elena
AU  - Wilson, Donna
AU  - Zaimi, Klodian
AU  - Živković, Nenad
PY  - 2017
UR  - https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/866
AB  - A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.
PB  - Amer Assoc Advancement Science, Washington
T2  - Science
T1  - Changing climate shifts timing of European floods
VL  - 357
IS  - 6351
SP  - 588
EP  - 590
DO  - 10.1126/science.aan2506
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_866
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Bloeschl, Guenter and Hall, Julia and Parajka, Juraj and Perdigao, Rui A. P. and Merz, Bruno and Arheimer, Berit and Aronica, Giuseppe T. and Bilibashi, Ardian and Bonacci, Ognjen and Borga, Marco and Canjevac, Ivan and Castellarin, Attilio and Chirico, Giovanni B. and Claps, Pierluigi and Fiala, Kayroly and Frolova, Natalia and Gorbachova, Liudmyla and Gul, Ali and Hannaford, Jamie and Harrigan, Shaun and Kireeva, Maria and Kiss, Andrea and Kjeldsen, Thomas R. and Kohnova, Silvia and Koskela, Jarkko J. and Ledvinka, Ondrej and Macdonald, Neil and Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria and Mediero, Luis and Merz, Ralf and Molnar, Peter and Montanari, Alberto and Murphy, Conor and Osuch, Marzena and Ovcharuk, Valeryia and Radevski, Ivan and Rogger, Magdalena and Salinas, Jose L. and Sauquet, Eric and Sraj, Mojca and Szolgay, Jan and Viglione, Alberto and Volpi, Elena and Wilson, Donna and Zaimi, Klodian and Živković, Nenad",
year = "2017",
abstract = "A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.",
publisher = "Amer Assoc Advancement Science, Washington",
journal = "Science",
title = "Changing climate shifts timing of European floods",
volume = "357",
number = "6351",
pages = "588-590",
doi = "10.1126/science.aan2506",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_866"
}

Bloeschl, G., Hall, J., Parajka, J., Perdigao, R. A. P., Merz, B., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Canjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Fiala, K., Frolova, N., Gorbachova, L., Gul, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnova, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Rogger, M., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Sraj, M., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K.,& Živković, N.. (2017). Changing climate shifts timing of European floods. in Science
Amer Assoc Advancement Science, Washington., 357(6351), 588-590.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan2506
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_866

Bloeschl G, Hall J, Parajka J, Perdigao RAP, Merz B, Arheimer B, Aronica GT, Bilibashi A, Bonacci O, Borga M, Canjevac I, Castellarin A, Chirico GB, Claps P, Fiala K, Frolova N, Gorbachova L, Gul A, Hannaford J, Harrigan S, Kireeva M, Kiss A, Kjeldsen TR, Kohnova S, Koskela JJ, Ledvinka O, Macdonald N, Mavrova-Guirguinova M, Mediero L, Merz R, Molnar P, Montanari A, Murphy C, Osuch M, Ovcharuk V, Radevski I, Rogger M, Salinas JL, Sauquet E, Sraj M, Szolgay J, Viglione A, Volpi E, Wilson D, Zaimi K, Živković N. Changing climate shifts timing of European floods. in Science. 2017;357(6351):588-590.
doi:10.1126/science.aan2506
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_866 .

Bloeschl, Guenter, Hall, Julia, Parajka, Juraj, Perdigao, Rui A. P., Merz, Bruno, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Canjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Fiala, Kayroly, Frolova, Natalia, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gul, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnova, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Rogger, Magdalena, Salinas, Jose L., Sauquet, Eric, Sraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Viglione, Alberto, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, Živković, Nenad, "Changing climate shifts timing of European floods" in Science, 357, no. 6351 (2017):588-590,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan2506 .,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_gery_866 .