Multihazard susceptibility assessment: A case study – Municipality of Štrpce (Southern Serbia)

Abstract

The municipality of Štrpce (Southern Serbia) is an area located within Šar Mountain National Park, which is of great ecological importance. Due to the vicinity of settlements, it is necessary to analyze the terrain's susceptibility to natural hazards. The main goal of this research was to determine locations that are highly vulnerable at times of natural hazards (such as earthquakes, erosion, torrential flooding, snow avalanches, and forest fires). The first step in this research was to analyze seismic hazards for a 475 years return period (VII–VIII MCS for the observed area), which was possible by means of Geographic Information Systems. The second step was to determine the intensity of erosion and total sediment production using the Erosion Potential Model. The third step was related to the analysis of the potential of torrential floods using the Flash Flood Potential Index. The Avalanches Potential Index method was used as the fourth step. The fifth step included the analysis of a terrain susceptibility to the occurrence of forest fires. Following the five criteria analysis, weight coefficients were assigned to each of the analyzed parameters by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which provided results of the total susceptibility to natural hazards of the territory of Štrpce. Results indicated that over 45% of the municipality is highly or very highly susceptible to various natural hazards. This article represents a significant step toward a better understanding of natural hazards and it provides a unique knowledge basis for establishing the management and mitigation guidelines and measures, not only within the researched area but at regional and national levels as well.